No one can predict if so-called “bird flu” will spread to humans worldwide, but if it does, businesses need to be ready. Here are factors to consider in your planning. (First of two parts.)
Good business practice means following the saying, “Hope for the best, but plan for the worst.”
These days, one of he worst things that could happen to business … and the world in general … would be a spread of the so-called “avian” or “bird” flu, now largely limited to persons handling poultry and other fowl in Asian nations.
The disease may well stay there, held to that group. But medical authorities are wary of the possibility that at any time the virus that causes it, officially known as H5N1, could mutate into one that passes not just from bird to human, but from human to human.
Should that happen, the effects could be catastrophic. Carried from Asia by international travelers who do not know they have been infected, the disease would cross the world at jet speed in a phenomenon known as a pandemic … an epidemic of global proportions.
Past pandemics have made history. The great flu outbreak of 1918-1919 killed an estimated 50 million worldwide, more than half a million of the victims American. Later pandemics were better contained, thanks to an enhanced knowledge of how to isolate the disease. But as recently as 1968-69, a flu pandemic killed 700,000 worldwide, 34,000 in the United States.
The H5N1 virus has already proven itself extremely lethal, killing up to 50 percent of its victims despite the best efforts of modern medicine. No vaccine yet exists to prevent it, and none can be developed until it shows its ultimate nature.
Even if fatalities can be limited, the flu’s effects would be felt across society. Workplace absences would skyrocket, with 30% of the workforce estimated to be off the job, and 5% never to return to work. Health providers would be overwhelmed and other services would break down. Workers would face a shortage of food, gasoline, and other essentials, while businesses would be cut off from needed supplies or distribution channels. And unlike commonplace winter flu, whose effects last a week or so, avian flu might disrupt life for weeks or even months.
It’s not a pretty picture. And though they hope it will never be realized, business consultants and experts from the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) say it must be planned for. They suggest the following strategies:
–Education. Learn about avian flu and educate your workforce about it. Be sure that they know that there is no immediate threat, but that you are considering how to handle one if it happens.
–Identify resources. If one-third of your workforce is absent, who will conduct the essential functions of your company? Identify those individuals and their backups now. Also, investigate alternate vendors for needed supplies and backup channels to distribute your product or service. To alleviate manpower shortages, consider drawing temporary workers from industries that will virtually shut down in a pandemic—leisure and travel, for example.
–Consider policy changes. If your workforce is markedly reduced, you may need to work staggered shifts or depend more on telecommuting. Ask whether your management systems can be operated remotely, and if not, source the programming to do so. Your leave policies would, of course, need to be evaluated to encourage those who need it to take the time required to fully recover, as would your disability coverage. Your business travel policies, too, would be greatly affected.
We’ll consider additional preparatory suggestions in Part 2 of this article, appearing in the next Daily Advisor. For now, let us recommend that you listen in on an important BLR audio conference, “Avian Flu and the Workplace,” to be held on Wednesday, February 14, 2007, at 1:30 p.m. (ET). Or if you can’t attend, that you purchase the CD of the session. Details are in the announcement below.
To attend the “Avian Flu and the Workplace” audio conference or to pre-order a CD recording of the session, click here.