Unexpected Demographics of the 2007-10 Downturn

A Wall Street Journal analysis of recent data sets reveals unexpected characteristics of current employment losses. The last 10 years have seen an increasing parity in employment among men and women, but because the majority of women came into the job market later, it was expected that layoffs — following a last-in/first-out pattern — would hit women harder. Quite unexpectedly, however, more than 70 percent of the jobs lost since December 2007 were held by men.

One factor seems to be that the downturn hit manufacturing and construction hardest and men disproportionately are employed in these sectors. (In 2007, men represented 93 percent of construction and 72 percent of manufacturing employment.) The near collapse of U.S. auto manufacturing reduced the ranks of employees of the Detroit Three and their domestic supply chain. And construction had become overstaffed during the building boom because of easy mortgages. Many construction and auto supply companies were exhausted and undercapitalized, and they simply went out of business, lacking the will or resources to attempt to preserve their core workforces through reduced hours and alternative employment.

Some observers also suggested that women were more likely to seek part-time work, and those jobs may have experienced more cutbacks than absolute termination, especially since some service jobs lend themselves to reduced hours. Another article in the Wall Street Journal noted that in the past 10 years, women have earned degrees almost 60:40 to men and were employed more heavily in education, medicine, and other white-collar jobs that are less susceptible to layoffs, at least to date.

A further contribution (albeit small) was what one writer called a “workplace baby boom” caused by an apparent acceleration of expectant or new mothers into the labor force (the percentage of expectant mothers in the workplace has increased from 36 to 61 percent in the past three years, according to the Wall Street Journal).

As we move further into 2010, the numbers of returning workers — if rosy predictions are realized — may be disproportionately men. The Institute for Supply Management suggests that the manufacturing sector expects to ramp up hiring more quickly than the service sector, and these recalls would reasonably reverse the layoff pattern. Those watching their numbers for affirmative action plans and hiring/ recall patterns will do well to note reasons for a seemingly disproportionate hiring of men. After all, men will be overrepresented in the trained/experienced labor pool, and slower recalls and hiring of women may simply reflect the undoing of unequal protections they previously received, not improper discrimination.

• California Employment Law Letter
  Excerpted from California Employment Law Letter, and written by attorneys at the law firm of Freeland Cooper & Foreman LLP.The contents of CALIFORNIA EMPLOYMENT LAW LETTER are intended for general information and should not be construed as legal advice or opinion. Readers in need of legal advice should retain the services of competent counsel. The State Bar of California does not designate attorneys as board certified in labor law. Contact the attorneys at Freeland Cooper & Foreman LLP