Federal workers are being called back to the office, marking a significant shift in government telework policies. The Trump administration’s renewed focus on return-to-office (RTO) mandates is designed to curb remote work and reshape the federal workforce. But is this a push for productivity, or a strategic way to reduce the size of government through voluntary attrition?
A Political and Workforce Shift Away From Remote Work
The federal government’s stance on telework has shifted dramatically over the past few years. In fact, the battle over telework in the federal government started long before the pandemic.
Under the Trump administration, agencies began scaling back remote work, arguing it hurt productivity. The pandemic temporarily reversed that trend, with nearly all federal employees working from home at some point.
The Biden administration initially embraced telework as a tool for recruitment and retention, particularly as private employers leaned into hybrid work. But by mid-2023, attitudes had shifted. Lawmakers, particularly conservatives, started questioning whether it was fair for federal workers to earn Washington, D.C., salaries while living in lower-cost states.
Even President Biden eventually joined the calls for federal employees to return to the office. “Even before President Trump and [House Republicans] rode into Washington promising to slash the federal workforce, there was already a crackdown on remote work in the federal government,” said Julia Pollak, ZipRecruiter’s Labor Economist.
The Data: Federal Remote Work Was Already on a Downward Trajectory
According to ZipRecruiter data provided by Pollak, the share of federal job postings offering remote work has plummeted over the past three years:
- 2022: 10.7% of federal job postings were remote
- 2023: 7.3%
- 2024: Just 5.7%
This decline suggests an intentional effort to phase out telework across federal agencies.
Will Federal Employees Leave for the Private Sector?
With remote options shrinking, many federal employees now face a difficult choice: return to the office or leave for private-sector roles that still offer flexibility.
Some experts believe the RTO mandates are designed to trigger voluntary attrition, allowing the government to reduce headcount without politically unpopular layoffs. Employees who moved to lower-cost states during the pandemic may find themselves unable—or unwilling—to comply with RTO demands.
“A shift of tech workers from the public to the private sector could create opportunities, both for the individuals involved and the industries gaining their expertise,” said Tony Holmes, Practice Lead at Pluralsight.
Industries like cybersecurity, healthcare technology, and cloud computing are actively hiring workers with federal experience, particularly those familiar with regulatory environments and large-scale IT systems, Holmes says.
At the same time, Holmes notes that government consulting firms and federal contractors—such as Deloitte, EY, PwC, and KPMG—may benefit the most, as they can offer displaced workers a familiar environment with better pay and career mobility.
How the Private Sector Is Reacting to the Federal RTO Push
Private-sector employers are watching closely. Some companies see an opportunity to attract disillusioned federal employees, while others may take this as a signal to tighten their own remote work policies.
As federal agencies eliminate remote work, private companies are faced with a choice:
- Capitalize on this shift and hire former federal employees?
- Or view this as a signal that remote work is no longer necessary?
Right now, companies are split.
Some employers—particularly in tech and finance—are tightening their own RTO policies. Major corporations like Amazon, JPMorgan, IBM, and Dell have been rolling back remote work options, signaling a potential broader shift away from telework.
However, other companies see an opportunity. “More than 90% of new companies born in the last decade allow remote or hybrid work, as do 80% of Fortune 500 companies for corporate positions,” says Pollack. “Those remote-friendly companies are already gearing up to benefit from the inevitable exodus of federal workers who want to continue flexible work.”
“Businesses should closely observe the outcomes of this mandate, including attrition rates and compliance challenges, as a real-world case study to inform their own return-to-office policies,” said Rick Hermanns, CEO of HireQuest.
Lessons for Employers: Managing RTO the Right Way
While some companies have successfully used RTO to rebuild company culture and productivity, others have faced backlash for rigid mandates.
“When managed correctly, RTO can be a tool that creates a stronger culture, higher job satisfaction, and greater production,” said Lizabeth Wesely-Casella, CEO of L-12 Services Corp.
“The flipside is that when managed poorly, RTO can ruin an organization’s reputation by highlighting dictatorial strategies, poor internal communication, and a lack of empathy for the workforce.”
Some companies—including Disney, Apple, and Zoom —have already experienced employee resistance after announcing strict RTO rules. Employers should be cautious not to repeat these mistakes.
The federal government’s return-to-office push is more than just a bureaucratic policy shift—it’s a major test of how workers, employers, and industries adapt to the post-pandemic world.
If the government loses a wave of talent, the private sector will have a chance to attract experienced professionals looking for flexibility. But if federal agencies manage to retain their workforce despite stricter office requirements, it could signal a broader shift away from remote work—with more companies feeling emboldened to do the same. Either way, one thing is certain: the remote work debate isn’t over yet.
Lin Grensing-Pophal is a Contributing Editor at HR Daily Advisor.