Repealing the individual mandate would result in 12 million fewer adults with health insurance in 2014, but would bump up premiums for coverage only by 2.4 percent, researchers at the RAND Corporation say.
No Death Spiral …
Health insurance premiums would only be 2.4 percent higher than they would be with an individual mandate and its expanded risk pool. In other words, adding 12 million people to the pool of covered lives would not substantially lower insurance premiums, they say.
“Our analysis suggests eliminating the individual mandate would sharply decrease coverage, but it would not send premiums into a ‘death spiral’ that would make health insurance unaffordable to those who do not qualify for government subsidies,” the study’s lead author said on the RAND web page.
The 12 million estimate is in line with other studies on the impact of no individual mandate, particularly the Congressional Budget Office and the Urban Institute.
… But Greater Government Spending
Even without the mandate, RAND researchers expect enrollment to increase by 15 million as a result of health reform: the expansion of employer coverage and the availability of government-subsidized insurance. Government spending on subsidies would increase without an individual mandate, they add.